Kaduna State: 2024 3rd Quarter Budget Performance And Budget Realism
By Yusuf Ishaku Goje
When the Kaduna State 2024 budget was being prepared and finally approved, a number of us questioned some revenue targets. Raising the IGR target from N89 billion (bn) in 2023 (with only about N63bn realized) to N120bn, is to say it mildly overambitious. Evidently, as at the 3rd quarter of 2024, it seems reality is now setting in. So far, out of the N120bn target, only N42.9bn has been realized, a 35.8% performance – with a few months to the end of the year. Out of which tax and non-tax revenue contributed N30.6bn and N12.4bn respectively.
Furthermore, personal tax had the highest contribution with N27.7bn, making up 64.4% of the total IGR performance. In the same period, international loan/borrowing of N45.4bn (30.3% of the budgeted N150bn target) is more than the IGR. Comparatively, the loan/borrowing has surpassed that of 2023 full-year of N26.7bn, with N18.8bn. More disturbing is that the public debt service of N40.8bn is about to overtake the IGR performance. Interestingly, the public debt service has surpassed the projected amount of N25.5bn budgeted for the 2024 full-year, with about N15.3bn.
This has proven the consistent opinion expressed in the annual reports of the Office of the Auditor-General right – that “the State’s revenue forecast appears to be exaggerated or too bogus to be achieved.” The report also added that “most MDAs were not able to realize revenue targets.” Notwithstanding, the Government share of FAAC had an impressive performance of 126.3% and makes up 80.6% of the total recurrent revenue. However, it exposes the vulnerability of the State should FAAC dwindle.
The Kaduna State budget as at the 3rd quarter (January to September) had a 59.7% performance, it is not unexpected. This means the State has expended N273.7bn out of the revised total budget of N458.3bn. The breakdown further shows that recurrent expenditure had N113.1bn and capital expenditure N160.7bn. Worthy of note is that public debt service is 36.1% of the recurrent expenditure, while international loans/borrowing made up 28.3% of the total capital expenditure.
On the positive side, commendably so, it is imperative to note that, in terms of sub-sectors, the Ministry of Education got the highest expenditure performance with N64.9bn (23.7% of total expenditure). It is followed by the Ministry of Finance with N64.5bn (23.6%), the Ministry of Public Works & Infrastructure N58.3bn (21.3%), the Ministry of Health with N34.9bn (12.8%) and Ministry of Agriculture N16.9bn (6.2%). If this trend is sustained, the State will not only have met the health (15%) and education (26%) benchmarks for allocations but also in terms of expenditure.
As the 2025 budget formulation is ongoing, one is compelled to call on the State government to be more realistic with its projections and targets, especially IGR. More so, provide the needed support for the Internal Revenue Service and other revenue generating MDAs to meet realistic targets. As it stands we cannot expect magic from the Service in its current state and with the current overambitious targets being imposed on them.
Finally, the government needs to reduce our international loans/borrowing, as our debt service is fast becoming unsustainable. Not to forget to add that we have currently surpassed all our debt sustainability thresholds. Likewise, the government needs to further cut down the cost of governance as well as ensure strict adherence to procurement law and value for money in contract execution.
Lets engage, ask the right questions and hold the government accountable.
Goje is an active citizen, civil society member and OGP enthusiast
