By Kenneth Iyamu
Africa’s population is projected to rise from the current 1.4 billion people to 2.5 billion by 2050. The consequence is that energy requirements will triple, leading to an 82% increase in energy demand. This population growth will drive an upward trajectory of more than 150% as the continent approaches a projected $5000 GDP per capita, as estimated by the World Bank.
A major concern is that Africa, while contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, suffers disproportionately from climate change, despite being home to about 17% of the world’s population. This situation creates unique developmental challenges for the continent. At this juncture, the pertinent question arises: Is it wise for Africa to abandon the development of its natural resources solely for environmental protection? This may be a misguided choice, as a wealthier Africa would be better positioned to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation while addressing its own energy and socio-economic needs.
An essential aspect to consider is that, with assistance in developing its abundant natural resources, Africa could boost its economy, lift millions out of poverty, and establish the necessary infrastructure to facilitate renewable energy adoption in the future. However, this pathway is not without challenges, as there is currently insufficient infrastructure to transport and distribute natural gas. Constructing pipelines, liquefaction plants, and other necessary infrastructure requires significant investment and long-term planning.
The continent also needs to address carbon emission reduction because climate change poses a severe threat to agriculture, commodities, and overall livelihoods. For instance, in Nigeria, around 70% of primary energy is derived from biomass. Due to limited on-grid power supply—rarely exceeding 5 gigawatts—the country supplements energy with 14 gigawatts from inefficient petrol and diesel backup generators, contributing over 30% of its particulate emissions. This reliance on inefficient energy sources has led to Nigeria having the highest deforestation rate worldwide, losing about 3.7% of its forests annually. Clearly, we need a comprehensive plan to address climate change.
In line with current global trends, Africa must adopt a shifting energy landscape aligned with successive United Nations Conference of Parties (COP) agendas and regional energy transition plans. Energy transition in developing countries should encompass growth, development, and sustainability alongside poverty alleviation. Although global investment in renewable energy reached a record $0.5 trillion in 2022, sub-Saharan Africa received only 1.5% of this global investment. This $0.5 trillion represents merely 40% of the energy needed between 2021 and 2030 to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) and limit global warming to 1.5°C, as per World Bank statistics.
Africa’s current challenges require an energy transition plan rooted in green growth, emphasizing critical policies and investment tools to deliver affordable, reliable, and clean energy. Many African countries, including Kenya, Ghana, and to some extent Nigeria, have established world-class Economic Transition Plans (ETIs). These plans underscore the need for renewable energy solutions to reduce carbon footprints. Adopting solar energy, wind farms, and energy-efficient technologies has become essential. Achieving these goals will require not only good intentions but also robust institutional capacities to enforce environmental regulations that safeguard natural resources for future generations.
Good governance lies at the heart of equitable energy transition, providing the cohesion necessary to balance energy, economy, and environmental needs harmoniously. Energy transition is a global challenge, and no single country can address it alone; international cooperation is essential. Technological transfer, capacity building, and financial support from international communities will be crucial for success.
For Africa to align with global progress, the continent must reorient its priorities to become a key player in the renewable energy transition. This will necessitate immediate engagement with international bodies, the adoption of best practices, and a proactive stance at global forums, starting from the Conference of Parties (COP) to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
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